Today's Forecast --GBP: Credit conditions in focus--29th July 2008

Money supply and credit numbers will be released in the UK today, with consumer credit, net lending secured on dwellings and mortgage approvals all expected to show further declines as the credit market weakness continues to bite. We are looking for consumer credit to fall to GBP1.2 bln in June (cons. GBP1.1 bn, prev. GBP 1.4 bn) and mortgage
approvals to fall to 40k (cons. 37k) after last month’s 42k print. Acknowledging the difficult conditions prevalent for financial firms and its potential economic impact due to the prominence of the sector in the UK’s national economy, reports suggest the Treasury is looking to lifting some taxes on investment funds to boost the UK’s competitiveness for
the asset management industry. Although the government’s fiscal position is weakening, the government may be starting to heed calls for more support for the financial sector. The CBI July distributive trades report will be released today at 10:00 GMT. We remain short EURGBP as a trade recommendation.