Today's Forecast --JPY: Jobless rate deteriorates --29th July 2008


Employment data for June was released this morning and showed the jobless rate rising to 4.1%, against expectations that the rate would stay steady at 4%. Following this morning’s labour market data the government has warned that job conditions in Japan are deteriorating. However, household spending data came in slightly better than expectations at - 1.8% y/y versus consensus of a decline of -2.8% y/y. BoJ Deputy Governor Nishimura spoke with Market News International and said that the BoJ’s policy options were ‘wide open’ amid growing upside and downside risks. While conditions at the margin are deteriorating, economic developments are still moving at a glacial pace leaving the yen a function of external factors such as oil prices, risk aversion and global growth. We continue to target USDJPY at 105 over 1 and 3 months. There is a lot of talk of month-end investment trust launches in the market. At the margin, this could keep yen weak heading into next week.