The Week Ahead In Forex-USD

It will be a crucial week for the US with the July labour report due. We are looking for a 75k decline in jobs on the back of last months’ -62k release. This is below market consensus of -70k. The unemployment rate is expected to rise further to 5.6% as economic deterioration sets in. Advance GDP will also be out but we expect a 1.0% reading as strong spending and exports have prevented the US from sliding into a recession. On the demand front, consumer confidence is expected to fall to 50.0 from 50.4, but the surprise jump in the July University of Michigan numbers suggests an upside surprise is possible. The housing situation will also remain in focus.
Mortgage applications will likely show further declines, and the key Case Shiller House Price
Index is expected to show a 16%y/y loss, worse than last month’s -15.3% decline.
Manufacturing ISM and Chicago PMI for July will be released and the market is looking for contractions to 49.2 and 49, respectively. We continue to expect the dollar to be caught in a wider 1.53-1.60 range as equity markets trade in a volatile fashion. Any return in risk aversion would hurt the dollar but ECB expectations are also under serious pressure of revision.

USD Date GMT Event Period UBS Previous Market
28-Jul 16:30 Fed's Mishkin Speaks on Fed Reserve communication
29-Jul 11:45 ICSC Weekly Store Sales (Jul 26) w-o-w n/a 0.1% n/a
29-Jul 12:55 Redbook Store Sales (Jul 26) m-o-m n/a 1.1% n/a
29-Jul 13:00 S&P/Case Shiller HPI (May) (Comp. 20) y-o-y n/a -15.3% -16.0%
29-Jul 14:00 Consumer Confidence (Jul) index n/a 50.4 50.0
29-Jul 16:30 Treasury's McCormick Speaks
30-Jul 11:00 Mortgage Applications (Jul 26) lvl n/a -6.2% n/a
30-Jul 12:15 ADP Employment change (Jul) m-o-m n/a -79 k -60 k
31-Jul 12:30 Advance GDP (Q2) q-o-q 1.0% 1.0% 2.0%
31-Jul 12:30 Employment Cost Index (Q2) q-o-q n/a 0.7% 0.7%
31-Jul 12:30 Personal Consumption (Q2 A) q-o-q n/a 1.1% 1.3%
31-Jul 12:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 26) lvl n/a 406k 380k
31-Jul 13:45 Chicago PMI (Jul) index n/a 49.6 49
01-Aug 12:30 Change in non-farm Payrolls (Jul) m-o-m -75 k -62 k -70 k
01-Aug 12:30 Unemployment Rate (Jul) % 5.6% 5.5% 5.6%
01-Aug 12:30 Change in Manufact. Payrolls (Jul) m-o-m n/a -33k -38k
01-Aug 14:00 Manufacturing ISM (Jul) index 49.0 50.2 49.2
01-Aug 14:00 ISM Prices Paid (Jul) index n/a 91.5 88.0
01-Aug 14:00 Construction Expenditures (Jun) m-o-m n/a -0.4% -0.3%